New Orleans
Hornets
Glass half-full: We had no crowd and no bench for half the season; now we have both.
Glass half-empty: Take away our pick-and-roll and we're screwed.
Key factoids you might not know: You might think that since the
Hornets have the best point guard in the league in Chris Paul that they'd be an up-tempo outfit, but they're really not. Though they'll run when the opportunity presents itself, the
Hornets are among the league's most deliberate teams when they get in the half-court. As a result, they play at the league's fourth-slowest pace.
Instead, here's a different secret to their success: They don't foul. You may not have that image of the
Hornets since they have a tough-guy coach in Byron Scott and fierce frontcourt players like Tyson Chandler and David West, but this is the hardest team in the league to get to the line against.
New Orleans permits only .241 free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt, and the impact is enormous -- relative to the league average, this saves the
Hornets about four points per game. Because of this, they're No. 6 in defensive efficiency, even though they're below the league average in both field-goal defense and forcing turnovers.
Remaini ngschedule: Pretty soft now that they've completed a wildly successful six-game Eastern road trip, going 5-1 with the only loss coming at Boston. Roadies against the
Lakers and
Mavs remain, as well as home games against Utah and Golden State, but the other five games are against losing teams.
Crystal ball says: No. 1 seed, here we come. The
Hornets own the tiebreaker with San Antonio, so as long as they can go 5-3 over the final eight games and get to 57 wins, they should finish at least tied for the best record in the West and earn the top seed. The Playoff Odds of them doing this is 62.1 percent, so they're in pretty good shape. Not that it's any great reward -- they'd likely have to play the
Mavs or
Nuggets in the opening round.
San Antonio could push the
Hornets down to No. 2, and the other team to watch is the
Lakers. They still play the
Hornets and will own the tiebreaker with a win.
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SanAntonio
Spurs
Glass half-full: Relax, we do this every year.
Glass half-empty: This sure seemed easier when everybody wasn't 30-something.
Key factoids you might not know: San Antonio began its late surge even later than usual, not really turning things around for good until late March. But now the
Spurs have won eight in a row and seem likely to be the No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the West.
As usual, the defense is the key. The
Spurs have been in the middle of the pack offensively all season, but rank third in defensive efficiency. They're the league's best defensive rebounding team, pulling down 76.9 percent of opponents' misses, and as usual they defend the 3-point line with ferocity. San Antonio gives up the fourth-fewest attempts -- only 19.5 percent of opponents' shots are 3s -- and are second only to Boston in 3-point defense at 33.8 percent.
But the reason San Antonio is so close to the rest of the Western pack rather than head and shoulders above is that several key role players have begun declining. Bruce Bowen, Michael Finley, Brent Barry, Jacque Vaughn and especially Robert Horry have all seen their output diminish due to age, injury or both, and as a result, on too many nights Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are left to carry the offense entirely. Barry's calf problem in particular has been a setback, because his still-deadly shot is an incredible deterrent to help defenders.
Remaini ngschedule: It's difficult. Road games against Utah, Portland and the
Lakers are the most daunting part, but the home games against Utah and Phoenix aren't gimmies either. Only one of the seven games (home vs. Seattle) shapes up as an automatic win. The game against the
Lakers will also determine who gets the tiebreaker; as a result it may end up deciding which team is the No. 2 seed and which is No. 3.
Crystal ball says: Chances are that the
Spurs will win either four or five of these next seven games, which would probably be enough to get the No. 2 seed but not enough to win the division. To leapfrog New Orleans to No. 1, the
Spurs probably would need to win six, unless the
Hornets have an unexpected collapse down the stretch. The bigger question is probably whether the
Spurs can hold off the
Lakers for No. 2 -- if they'd even want to. The No. 3 seed, and a likely date with Houston, seems much more advantageous.
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LosAngeles
Lakers
Glass half-full: Once our injured guys come back we have more talent than anyone in the league.
Glass half-empty: Please don't hit Kobe's pinkie. Pretty please.